Predictions for 2011

Towards the end of 2010 we began to see the signs of what to expect for 2011.  Here are a few of my predictions for 2011:

Re-alignment of politics, the Liberal Democrats and the AV referendum


At the end of 2010 the Liberal Democrats were hovering around 8-10% in the opinion polls, only a few months into the coalition.  The first big test will be in the May local elections, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections.  If the opinion polls are to be believed it will be devastating news for the Lib Dems, it is quite likely hundreds or even thousands of Lib Dem councillors will lose their seats, and lose control of most the councils they currently control.  Hopefully it will be mainly Labour who benefit from these losses, particularly in England, although the votes are liable to be shared with the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

At the same time we will be voting on the AV referendum.  My prediction is that the result will be close, probably with the No vote winning.  If this is the case, the No vote alongside massive seat losses will put serious pressure on the coalition with many Lib Dems questioning their commitment to it, knowing that if they decide to stick with it they are likely to lose many parliamentary seats come 2015.

2011 should see a continuing rise in support for Labour, with Ed Miliband being the right man to lead the party forward.  This should be a good year for Labour, hopefully winning the Oldham by-election and greatly increasing the number of council seats.

Ed is right to lead a review of party policy and question which Labour policies worked and which didn't.  Only a re-invented party, moving on from New Labour will engage with voters, particularly those who drifted away from Labour due to Iraq and attacks on civil liberties.  The Labour Party is the natural party for those who believe in fairness, equality and strong public services and hopefully the number of new members will continue to grow throughout the year.

A year of protest


Just because the tuition fee rise has been passed by Parliament, the ConDems are likely to be disappointed if they think the students will now leave the streets.  There are likely to be continued demonstrations about fees and the loss of EMA.  Alongside these demonstrations they student movement will be part of the bigger movement challenging the ConDem cuts.

March 26th will see the March for the Alternative demonstration, organised by the TUC.  In all likelihood this will be the largest demonstration the country has seen since the 2003 demonstration against the Iraq war.

Alongside the demonstrations there are likely to be an increasing number of strikes from public sector unions defending workers against the hundreds of thousands of jobs the ConDems wish to shed.

Royal Wedding

The diversion of a royal wedding will not take out minds off devastation the ConDems are causing to the country.  Unlike the Di/Charles wedding it is likely to polarise opinion, many will support it, but many  will questioning the relevance of a monarchy in the 21st century.  Republic will be leading the campaign for an elected head of state.

The 66p myth

The following is from Republic:

Help us smash the 66p myth - forward this to a friend!

The Buckingham Palace finance reports will be published on Monday - we need your help to challenge the royal spin. Please forward this email to a friend (you can use this simple form) and help spread the word.

Once again the royal PR machine will come up with an official cost, divide it by 60 million (that's every person in Britain, not just taxpayers) and tell us the monarchy costs just under 70p - the same as a loaf of bread or an iTunes download.

This is exceptionally dishonest. Dividing any cost by 60 million will make it seem small - but Republic has calculated that last year the monarchy cost British taxpayers in excess of £180 million.

That makes a royal 21 times more expensive than your MP!

Here's how that figure breaks down:

The Queen's civil list £12.7m
Parliamentary annuities (Prince Philip) £0.4m
Palaces and castles £15m
Travel £6.2m
Expenditure met by gov depts £4.9m
Security £100m
Duchy of Cornwall lost revenue £16m
Duchy of Lancaster lost revenue £13m
Costs to councils £10m
Unpaid tax £2m (?)
Travel and accomodation for Prince Charles £3m
Total £183.2m


There's more detailed information on our Royal Finances Campaign page.

You and I know that the royals will do everything they can to conceal the truth. That's why it's so important that you forward this email to a friend and help us spread the word.

MPs have been pilloried for their abuse of the Westminster expenses system. Now the BBC has revealed the expenses claims of its executives. Yet the royal finances, with the support of the Government, are still shrouded in secrecy.

While we continue to demand the abolition of the monarchy, we believe that for as long it remains the Palace must be fully transparent in the way it manages its funding and must be accountable to Parliament.

You can make a real difference by telling your friends.

Next steps in smashing the 66p myth

If you want to get more involved in our campaign to expose the true cost of the monarchy, there's lots you can do:

* Visit the Royal Finances Campaign page on our website.
* Join our Facebook page to keep up-to-date on developments.
* Use Twitter to spread the word (use the hashtag #royalfinances).
* Join Republic's Urgent Response Network and help strenghten our media presence.
* Make a donation to Republic's campaign fund.

Why do we need the Royals?

Once again a member of the Royal family has proved an embarrassment. It used to Princess Margaret and Prince Philip. Now we are getting the same shameless behaviour from Prince Harry.

After the ridiculous escapade with the Nazi uniform, we now find him guilty of racism and homophobia. St James's Palace claim he used the work "Paki" as a nickname, if this is true it is a shocking indictment on the armed forces for allowing such behaviour to go unchallenged.

This will undoubtedly not be the last time a member of the Royal family prove an embarrassment and we have to ask "Why do we need them?".

Defenders of the Royal family will argue that they only cost us £37 million a year. This however is a gross underestimate, with Republic UK estimating the real cost to be nearer £150 million.

If you are interested in learning more about Republic's Campaign for an Elected Head of State please visit http://www.republic.org.uk