Re-alignment of politics, the Liberal Democrats and the AV referendum
At the end of 2010 the Liberal Democrats were hovering around 8-10% in the opinion polls, only a few months into the coalition. The first big test will be in the May local elections, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections. If the opinion polls are to be believed it will be devastating news for the Lib Dems, it is quite likely hundreds or even thousands of Lib Dem councillors will lose their seats, and lose control of most the councils they currently control. Hopefully it will be mainly Labour who benefit from these losses, particularly in England, although the votes are liable to be shared with the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.
At the same time we will be voting on the AV referendum. My prediction is that the result will be close, probably with the No vote winning. If this is the case, the No vote alongside massive seat losses will put serious pressure on the coalition with many Lib Dems questioning their commitment to it, knowing that if they decide to stick with it they are likely to lose many parliamentary seats come 2015.
2011 should see a continuing rise in support for Labour, with Ed Miliband being the right man to lead the party forward. This should be a good year for Labour, hopefully winning the Oldham by-election and greatly increasing the number of council seats.
Ed is right to lead a review of party policy and question which Labour policies worked and which didn't. Only a re-invented party, moving on from New Labour will engage with voters, particularly those who drifted away from Labour due to Iraq and attacks on civil liberties. The Labour Party is the natural party for those who believe in fairness, equality and strong public services and hopefully the number of new members will continue to grow throughout the year.
A year of protest
Just because the tuition fee rise has been passed by Parliament, the ConDems are likely to be disappointed if they think the students will now leave the streets. There are likely to be continued demonstrations about fees and the loss of EMA. Alongside these demonstrations they student movement will be part of the bigger movement challenging the ConDem cuts.
March 26th will see the March for the Alternative demonstration, organised by the TUC. In all likelihood this will be the largest demonstration the country has seen since the 2003 demonstration against the Iraq war.
Alongside the demonstrations there are likely to be an increasing number of strikes from public sector unions defending workers against the hundreds of thousands of jobs the ConDems wish to shed.
Royal Wedding
The diversion of a royal wedding will not take out minds off devastation the ConDems are causing to the country. Unlike the Di/Charles wedding it is likely to polarise opinion, many will support it, but many will questioning the relevance of a monarchy in the 21st century. Republic will be leading the campaign for an elected head of state.
